Since October 13, 2023, the number of green certificates (GCs) awarded for solar panel installations with a capacity of less than 36 kWp has increased in the Brussels Region. What are the implications of this increase for individuals and companies wishing to invest in photovoltaic solar panels?
This rate rises from 1.9 to 2.055 CV/MWh (up to 5 kWp) and from 1.8 to 1.953 CV/MWh (between 5 and 36 kWp)!
The green certificate system supports the production of green electricity. Owners of photovoltaic systems receive CVs for 10 years for each MWh (1,000 kWh) of electricity produced, from the date the system is commissioned. These CVs can then be sold, generating significant income in addition to savings on consumption and the resale of injected electricity! The aim of the system is to help investors recoup the cost of their installation within a maximum of 7 years.
The number of CVs granted for each MWh of electricity produced is determined by BRUGEL. This rate is recalculated each year on the basis of changes in the following parameters over the past year:
- Price of photovoltaic systems: if it goes up, the CV rate goes up
- Electricity prices: if they rise, CV rates fall
- Plant productivity: if it increases, the CV rate decreases
- Green Certificate selling price: if it rises, the CV rate falls
The increase in the CV rate is essentially due to higher installation costs and lower resale prices for CVs.
In early 2023, plant prices rose sharply as a result of the war in Ukraine, driving up the CV rate. However, since the end of the summer, panel prices have been at an all-time low, but this hasn't yet been reflected in the CV rate!
For the same reason, as everyone still painfully remembers, the price of electricity hit record highs last year, making investment in a PV plant naturally more profitable, and thus lowering the CV rate.
Plant productivity corresponds to the energy produced (in kWh) by each kWp installed. Productivity is tending to increase with the improved performance of panels and inverters, the quality of installation and maintenance of installations, and the increase in annual sunshine in Belgium, linked to global warming (which is not good news in itself). All this has the effect of reducing the CV rate.
The price of green certificates varies according to supply and demand on the market: producers sell their CVs to suppliers, who are obliged to purchase a certain quota. However, since 2022, the number of PV installations has risen sharply and the production of CVs in Brussels has exploded. At the same time, electricity consumption has fallen sharply as citizens and businesses have been forced to adapt their uses (which is good news). Demand for CVs has therefore fallen while supply has risen... which is why the average price of CVs is now close to the guaranteed minimum price of €65/CV (instead of €90/CV at the start of 2022!). This has the effect of increasing the CV rate.
Higher CV rates and lower installation prices: a winning combination despite low CV prices
It may seem contradictory, but investing in a photovoltaic system is even more attractive today than it was a few months ago! The green certificate rate is guaranteed for 10 years from commissioning. At the moment, the cost of photovoltaic installations is very attractive, because demand is low and the price of panels, produced in large quantities by manufacturers, is at a historically low level. Moreover, electricity prices remained relatively high despite the slowdown in the Ukrainian crisis. Knowing that green certificates are valid indefinitely, the green certificates produced from now on at an attractive rate can be resold when the price of CVs is higher, while saving money thanks to a PV installation at a "floor" price!
Conversely, the CV rate will be reduced for larger installations (>36 kWp) from February 1, 2024.
In Brussels, the potential installed surface area is still far from being fully exploited compared to Flanders and Wallonia. The low proportion of private homeowners, the large number of condominiums, the small size of roofs and the complexity of working in an urban context mean that there is still a lot of space available on the roofs of homes and businesses! This is why the green certificate mechanism still exists in the Brussels Region, unlike in other regions.
What is the impact for a 5 kWp residential photovoltaic system?
The prices given here are indicative. For a real estimate, don't hesitate to ask us for a quote and a profitability study: https://soltis.be/devis/
- 11 Jinko Tiger Neo panels of 440 Wp, i.e. 4,840 Wp
- 1 Huawei SUN2000-4KTL-L1 UPS with 4.4 kVA capacity
- Estimated price: €7,000 VAT incl., i.e. approx. €1.38/Wp (excl. VAT)
- Annual output: 4,800 kWh (4.8 MWh)
- Energy savings (30% self-consumption; €0.35/kWh) = €504/year
- Energy resale (70% injection; €0.07/kWh) = €235/year
- Resale of green certificates: 4.8 MWh x 2.055 CV/MWh x 65 €/CV = 641 €/year
- Annual income (first 10 years): €1,380/year
- Return on investment: 5 years
- Gain after 10 years: €6,800
The prices given here are indicative. For a real estimate, don't hesitate to ask us for a quote and a profitability study: https://soltis.be/devis/
What is the impact for a 10 kWp residential photovoltaic system?
- 24 Jinko Tiger Neo panels of 440 Wp, i.e. 10,560 Wp
- 1 Huawei SUN2000-10KTL-BEM1 UPS with 10 kVA capacity
- Estimated price: €11,700 (approx. €1.05/Wp, excl. VAT)
- Annual production: 10,000 kWh (10 MWh)
- Energy savings (30% self-consumption; €0.35/kWh) = €1050/year
- Energy resale (70% injection; €0.07/kWh) = €490/year
- Resale of green certificates: 10 MWh x 1.953 CV/MWh x 65 €/CV = 1270 €/year
- Annual income (first 10 years): €2,810/year
- Return on investment: 4 years
- Gain after 10 years: €16,400
The prices given here are indicative. For a real estimate, don't hesitate to ask us for a quote and a profitability study: https://soltis.be/devis/
What is the impact for a 36 kWp photovoltaic installation (SME)?
- 81 Jinko Tiger Neo panels of 440 Wp, i.e. 35,640 Wp
- 2 Huawei Sun2000-12KTL-M2 inverters with a total output of 26.4 kVA
- Estimated price: €33,250 excluding VAT, i.e. approximately €0.93/Wp (excluding VAT) + €1,500 network study costs + €1,500 stability study, i.e. €36,250 excluding VAT
- Annual production: 34 MWh
- Energy savings (50% self-consumption; €0.25/kWh) = €4,250/year
- Energy resale (50% injection; €0.07/kWh) = €1,190/year
- Resale of green certificates: 34 MWh x 1.953 CV/MWh x 65 €/CV = 4,316 €/year
- Annual income (first 10 years): €9,756/year
- Return on investment: 3.7 years
- Gain after 10 years: €61,310
The prices given here are indicative. For a real estimate, don't hesitate to ask us for a quote and a profitability study: https://soltis.be/devis/
We recommend that you consult us for a precise estimate based on your specific needs.
This makes it particularly attractive for SMEs and private individuals to consider investing in a photovoltaic solar panel installation, which can pay for itself in less than 5 years!
Installations over 36 kWp will be disadvantaged after February 2024:
For larger installations (>36 kWp), the price of green certificates has not fallen as much as for private customers, which is why the rate at which CVs are granted will fall by more than 50% from February 2024! It therefore makes sense to install a system of this power quickly, so as to benefit from a CV rate that is still high today.
The reason is that companies in Brussels with larger solar panel installations can better negotiate the resale of their green certificates and therefore sell them at the most opportune moment!
You can see from the table below that a big change is coming:
- 36-100 kWp: 1.7 to 1.016 HP/MWh
- 100-250 kWp: 1.4 to 0.642 HP/MWh
- Over 250 kWp: 1.2 to 0.580 HP/MWh
Here are the tables collected on Brugel:
Green certificate price of €88.77 (corporate ) for the third quarter of 2023
The minimum price is guaranteed by Elia's obligation to buy back CVs at €65/CV.
